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By John Stossel

Will Donald Trump be re-elected in 2020?

Probably not, say people who bet. They give Trump only a 23 percent chance. They do pick him over all other politicians, but the favorite is "other."

I know this because I follow the betting odds at

Yes, bettors were wrong about Trump's election and Brexit, but those were exceptions, and those votes unusual. Even Brexit's promoters predicted a loss; even Trump said he thought he'd lose when he saw the election-night exit polls.

But betting odds are usually right. It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking that if the bettors gave a candidate, say, a 65 percent chance to win, and he lost, bettors were "wrong." But remember, 65 percent means bettors also thought there was a 35 percent chance that candidate would lose.

There's wisdom in crowds, if the crowds put their money where their mouths are.

Bettors accurately picked Oscar winners, "American Idol" winners and most important elections. named VP picks Mike Pence and Tim Kaine a week before they were picked.

Even when bettors bet wrong, they are quicker to adjust than others. By 10 p.m. on election night, the odds had flipped from Clinton to Trump. An hour later, bettors had Trump at 90 percent, but CNN's Wolf Blitzer was still saying, "Hilary Clinton is now ahead in the all-important electoral college map count!"

Last week, right before France's election, reporters claimed that the terrorism in France would help elect Marine Le Pen. Saturday, Fox News headlined: "Le Pen sees Trump-like boost."

But bettors knew better. They favored Emmanuel Macron, 60 percent to 20 percent, and sure enough, he was the first-round winner.

The New York Times hyped Jean-Luc Melenchon, France's socialist candidate (of course), claiming he was "gaining steam." But betters weren't fooled. They gave Melenchon just a 5 percent chance.

A more complete track record of the bettors' predictions is posted at

I should explain: is a website my TV producer and I created. He takes the odds from legal betting markets, mostly from the biggest and most reliable one, Betfair (based in the U.K.). Our site converts Betfair's complex formulae to percentages that are easy to understand.

Candidates' shares trade like stocks in the stock market. Since, as I write, bettors give President Trump only a 23 percent chance of winning in 2020, you Trump supporters can make a big profit if he wins. Buy 100 shares of Trump now (at 23 cents a share) and if he wins, you'll get $100 for every $23 you bet.

Actually, you Americans can't  make that bet, because restrictive U.S. anti-gambling regulations prevent Betfair from dealing with Americans.

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Hundreds of people showed up to take advantage of the local U Pull & Pay’s Customer Appreciation Day which featured 50% off all parts.

U Pull & Pay is a salvage yard where you bring your own tools and pull your own parts. There’s a $2 per person cover charge. You tell the clerk what you’re looking for and he or she will give you a readout of all the cars in the lot that might have what you’re looking for, as well as which row they are in. You take it from there. You find the part, remove it and bring it up to the counter. It’s a great way to save big dollars if you don’t mind getting your hands dirty.

For more information visit their website at

or follow them on Facebook at

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By Ed Duffy

The Dog Haus Biergarten opened their first Colorado Springs location this week at 162 Tracker Drive, off Exit 156, near Bass Pro Shop, Overdrive Raceway and the Magnum Shooting Center.

The Dog Haus features “craft casual” in the form of gourmet hot dogs, sausages and burgers, as well as a wide selection of craft brews and spirits. They also offer premium shakes and soft-serve ice cream.

This is the second location for franchisees Lyle Rider and Jeron Boemer. The Dog Haus was founded by partners Hagop Giragossian, Quasim Riaz and Andre Vener in 2010. (official press release here).

The Tracker Drive location is the 22d store to actually open for business, but there are over 400 in the works at the moment. The atmosphere is cozy at about 2,400 square feet, with seating inside and out that encourages interaction, conversation and general merriment. For more information visit, find them on Facebook at or call 719-488-4278.

Thanks to the Dog Haus and RedEnergy PR for inviting us to attend to the premier!

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By Ed Duffy

Lotion Bar Cafe has been a local business success story for coming up on 10 years.

Now you can visit their new studio, shop for product and even learn how to make some very cool things yourself.

Owner, Holly Port started making lotion bars and soaps as a hobby. She gave them as gifts and soon started getting requests from family and friends. As sales grew, she decided it was time to make a business out of it, and Lotion Bar Cafe was born. At first she sold at local farmers markets and on sites like Etsy. Now Lotion Bar Cafe has products in 63 stores and counting.

Lotion Bar Cafe also partners with other local crafters. A company called Paint a Sign offers classes at the new location where you can paint your own, custom sign, for decorating your home or for your business. You can learn to make truffles with help from One Butt Bakery. There’s a Tea Tasting and Tea Tin Painting class, and Lotion Bar offers a 3-day Boot Camp on making your own soaps.

Holly has also written a book called Make It Fizz, A Guide to Bathtub Treats, which you can pick up at the store or online as well.

The new studio is usually open between 10am and 2pm weekdays, but if you’re not local, call ahead first to be sure at 719-321-9438. For more information, visit them on the web at, on Facebook at or email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

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by John Stossel

As a group, black Americans have made the greatest gains -- over some of the highest hurdles and in a very short span of time -- of any racial group in mankind's history. What's the evidence? If one totaled up the earnings of black Americans and considered us as a separate nation with our own gross domestic product, we would rank among the 20 richest nations. It was a black American, Gen. Colin Powell, who once headed the world's mightiest military. Black Americans are among the world's most famous personalities, and a few are among the world's richest people.

The significance of these and other achievements is that at the end of the Civil War, neither a slave nor a slave owner would have believed such progress would be possible in a little over a century -- if ever. As such, it speaks to the intestinal fortitude of a people. Just as importantly, it speaks to the greatness of a nation in which such gains were possible. Nowhere else on the face of the earth would such progress be possible except in the United States of America. The big and thorny issue that confronts our nation is how these gains can be extended to the one-third or more of the black population for whom they have proved elusive.

A major part of the solution should be the elimination of public and private policy that rewards inferiority and irresponsibility. Chief among the policies that reward inferiority and irresponsibility is the welfare state. When some people know that they can have children out of wedlock, drop out of school and refuse employment and suffer little consequence, one should not be surprised to see the growth of such behavior. The poverty rate among blacks is about 30 percent. It's seen as politically correct to blame today's poverty on racial discrimination, but that's nonsense. Why? The poverty rate among black intact husband-and-wife families has been in the single digits for more than two decades. Does one want to argue that racists discriminate against female-headed families but not husband-and-wife families?